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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.