🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute approach on Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "serious repercussions" in August in case Putin persisted obstructing peace discussions, the former president eventually imposed considerable restrictions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially affected Putin's ability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, that was created by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly position.

Rewarding Invasion

This proposal would in practice benefit Putin for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively undermine that very sovereignty. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a part of Ukrainian soil will appease the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not only about controlling a damaged area of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear goal to weaken it so it no longer functions as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in status the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force the nation to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unable to capture in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to resume the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would make renewed conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their existing large number troops to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative imposes no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people government as radicals, Trump's plan states: "All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." As if to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken similar treaties in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should we trust Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "strong unified military response" if Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the particulars include vague to alarming. The plan would not just deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, effectively precluding the reassurance force, reportedly led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished troops, restocking, and reinvading.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a defense action. But in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to respond with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not