Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”