Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.